China Races Ahead, U.S. Stalls, Europe Rebounds: New EY EV Forecast

A new forecast from EY shows just how unevenly the electric vehicle (EV) transition is unfolding across the world’s three largest auto markets. The EY Mobility Lens Forecaster, an AI-powered model projecting light vehicle sales through 2050, finds the U.S. trailing China and Europe in reaching the milestone of 50% EV adoption.

• China: New energy vehicles (battery electrics plus plug-in hybrids) will pass 50% of sales by 2025 and surge beyond 90% by 2034. Battery electrics alone are expected to clear the halfway mark by 2033.
• Europe: Growth slows through 2027, but stricter emissions rules and cheaper models will fuel a rebound, with BEVs topping 50% of sales by 2032.
• United States: A brief spike in 2025 from tax credits is followed by slower growth, with BEVs not expected to reach 50% until 2039, five years later than earlier forecasts.

Constantin M. Gall, EY Global Aerospace, Defense & Mobility Leader, says:

“The EV transition is advancing—but unevenly. The US faces policy uncertainty, high costs, and infrastructure gaps. Europe is on a steady recovery path under strict emissions targets. China benefits from stable policy and a robust EV ecosystem. Hybrid technologies are proving essential in bridging the gap to full electrification.”

Why it matters: National policy, infrastructure, and consumer incentives are making the difference. China is racing ahead, Europe is rebounding, and the U.S. risks being lapped in the global EV transition.

Source: “China races ahead in EV transition as Europe recalibrates and US stalls: EY analysis.” EY Global, September 9, 2025. Read more here