Beyond the EV Doom and Gloom… Hope, and Worries
As we end 2025, there is plenty of doom-casting in the EV world. Donald Trump’s war on EVs has drawn blood on an American auto manufacturing sector already pummeled by senseless tariffs and promised EV subsidies that have been cancelled. (Meanwhile, China continues to subsidize unprofitable automakers and flood the world with cars, seeking to deindustrialize competitors like the U.S.)
RIP Lightning
Yesterday Ford canceled production of its Ford F-150 Lightning, an EV much loved by EV enthusiasts, and took a staggering $19 billion dollar write off on its EV program. Ford does have some breakthrough affordable EVs in the pipeline, complete with a radically new manufacturing process to cut costs, worker injuries, and increase productivity. The full-size Lightning will be replaced by an EREV, an EV with a small gasoline engine to dramatically increase range and towing ability. Most experts think this will become the best solution for e-powered pickup trucks in the future.)
Photo credit: Ford Motor Company, F-150 Lightning
How Bad Is It?
My take? Do not despair. EVs are the better vehicle for most people, and as consumers try them, they like them. (Eighty percent of EV buyers become converts and stick with EVs.) Early data shows that the drop in sales after the federal EV credits ended in September was not as catastrophic as many auto pundits predicted. Time will tell as next year rolls around.
The most hopeful data comes from Germany. In 2023, the German government cut its EV subsidies and, as expected, sales collapsed. But now, 23 months later, German EV sales have recovered to pre-subsidy levels. EVs are the better car for most people, and over time the markets figure it out. (See chart.)
EVs Will Win the Future, but Who Will Win EVs?
So the question is not whether the world auto market will eventually become majority EV. The question is who will manufacture those cars: democracies in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Europe, South Korea, and Japan, or the People’s Republic of China?
As of today, the Chinese are gaining across the board. And as I often note, the Trump Administration is doing its destructive best to help the Chinese.
But political winds are changing, and that can lead to better policy in time. Meanwhile, here at EVs for All America, we are working to remind automakers that 80 percent of U.S. EVs are sold in 15 key states. Our advice: focus on state policy in those key states and create state incentives to sell more EVs.
Our data shows that consumers who say they have friends and relatives who own EVs have a much higher opinion of electric vehicles. There are more of those potential buyers in high-EV-sales states, so let’s focus short-term efforts there. A $3,500 “conquest credit” (for first-time new or used EV buyers) would be effective and affordable. We recommend it in California and other state legislatures.
We are also working to help states overcome other big “pinch points” in selling EVs, including improving dealer incentives to profitably sell EVs and bringing very cost-efficient Level 2 charging to the millions of apartment and condo residents who are effectively blocked from the full benefits of EV ownership by the difficulty of accessing overnight charging in those buildings.
A Quiz: Chinese Cars in the U.S.?
Here is a quick quiz. Approximately how many Chinese-made cars were sold in America this year?
- 368,000
- 20,000
- 0
- 1,300
- 90,000
None, you say? They are blocked from the U.S. market. True.
So if you want to see, touch, and drive a Chinese-made car, where do you go? Shanghai? Nope. You only need to drive, on average, about 10–12 miles.
Yup, the Motor Trend SUV of the Year is Made in … China. And it’s a very nice car.
The answer is: about 90,000 Chinese-made cars were sold this year in America. Polestars (a few) and Buick Envisions (a lot, 35K or so) and Lincoln Nautilus (around 46,000; the best-selling Lincoln). Both are fine quality cars. Why? U.S. Auto companies, which also sell in China, are covering their bets. They have no choice.
I talked about all this today on Daily Dealer Live, a great web-based TV show from The Car Dealership Guy.
America Speaks on EVs and Buying Chinese-Made Cars…
A few weeks ago, we completed our annual national survey on political division and EV attitudes. Stay tuned, we’ll be publishing that fascinating data in January.
Here are two early hints. First, the partisan division over EVs is lessening in a meaningful way. Second, we tested how interested Americans would be in buying a Chinese-made car. While there are headwinds, younger consumers are more open to the idea than many in the auto industry might think.
Another warning that without better policy in DC… this will be the Chinese automotive century.
Our best wishes for the holiday season.